Futures Snapshot

S&P 500 futures pointed modestly higher Tuesday morning, up approximately 0.2% with contracts near 6,937. Nasdaq 100 futures gained roughly 0.45%, pointing to a slightly stronger open for technology-heavy positions. VOO closed Monday at $630.72, up $6.12 (+0.98%) as Goldman Sachs earnings beat offset persistent Strait of Hormuz concerns. Brent crude slipped to $99.05, dipping below the $100 threshold for the first time since the Hormuz blockade announcement, which eased some of the energy-driven inflation pressure that has weighed on equity sentiment since last week.

What Happened Overnight

Monday's session confirmed that strong bank earnings can outweigh geopolitical noise. Goldman Sachs reported Q1 2026 revenue of approximately $17.2 billion, beating consensus estimates, with investment banking fees up sharply year-over-year on a robust first quarter for M&A advisory and equity underwriting. The stock climbed more than 3% and helped pull the broader financial sector higher, lifting VOO's financial-sector weighting alongside it. The S&P 500 closed Monday at approximately 6,886, up from Friday's close of 6,825.

On the geopolitical front, the U.S. Navy's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz remains in effect, but no new naval incidents were reported overnight. Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps issued a statement reiterating its claim that the strait remains open to Iranian-authorized vessels, maintaining the standoff without escalation. Oil markets responded cautiously, with Brent crude slipping from Monday's close near $99.36 to $99.05 in overnight trading. European markets opened mixed Tuesday morning. Asian markets, which closed before the Goldman results, showed modest losses on residual Hormuz anxiety before Wall Street's positive session provided some reassurance through Asian trading.

The VIX, the market's primary fear gauge, fell to 18.28 from 19.12 on Friday, its lowest reading in several weeks. That decline reflects investors pricing in lower near-term volatility following back-to-back positive sessions for the major indices. The 10-year Treasury yield eased slightly to 4.30% from 4.32%, a small but notable move given that March CPI last Thursday printed at 3.3% year-over-year on Iran-driven energy costs.

What to Watch Today

JPMorgan Chase reports Q1 2026 results before the bell, the most closely watched earnings release of the week. Analysts expect revenue near $44 billion and net interest income that reflects the persistence of elevated short-term rates. JPMorgan is a top holding in VOO's financial-sector allocation, and CEO Jamie Dimon's commentary on credit quality, consumer spending, and the macro environment will carry significant weight for the broader market. A cautious tone from Dimon on the Hormuz situation or on loan loss reserves could move the entire financial sector, while a beat-and-raise would likely extend Monday's gains.

Retail Sales for March are due at 8:30 AM ET, offering the first comprehensive read on consumer spending since the Iran conflict began in earnest. Consensus estimates call for a modest monthly gain after February's flat reading. Consumer discretionary and staples stocks together make up a substantial share of the S&P 500 that VOO tracks, so a miss on retail sales could raise doubts about whether conflict-driven energy costs have begun to suppress household spending. Morgan Stanley, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo round out the week's remaining major bank reporters, with Netflix and Johnson & Johnson also on the calendar later in the week.

VOO Context

VOO enters Tuesday at $630.72, now approximately 0.57% ahead year-to-date and roughly 1.7% below its 52-week high of $641.81. The fund has recovered more than 5.5% from its Q1 trough of $597.55 over the past two weeks. Whether that recovery continues through bank earnings season depends heavily on JPMorgan's results and tone this morning. Long-term holders can review historical performance across prior volatility periods using the returns calculator.